三星、SK海力士、美光三家公司壟斷了全球95%的內存產能,內存跌價已經讓這三家公司的業績大幅下滑,三星上季度盈利預計暴跌50%以上,他們顯然不會坐視內存價格繼續下跌,已經開始從產能上調節市場供應。
根據IC Insights的報告,2019年DRAM市場上的資本開支將會大幅減少,全年預計資本開支170億美元,相比2018年降幅高達28%,去年內存市場資本開支高達240億美元,相比2017年的160億美元大漲了50%。
內存資本開支是廠商用于購買生產設備、生產材料等維持產能所需的投資,削減資本開支意味著產能會下降,導致市場上的內存供應會減少。
目前只有美光公司公布過具體的產能削減計劃,其中內存削減產能5%,NAND閃存削減從原本計劃的5%擴大到了10%,三星、SK海力士兩家韓國公司沒有公布過明確的產能削減投資,此前三星還在否認削減NAND閃存產能。
對于價格走勢,IC Insights預計今年全球貿易不確定性因素依然存在,所以內存價格下半年依然會疲軟,但是由于各大公司2019年資本開支大幅削減,有利于市場消化庫存,2020年DRAM內存供需就會平衡。
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